Mercury vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 21 points in Monday's WNBA matchup [6/22/2026]

The Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Monday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Fever as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Fever game.

The Fever, powered by Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, are set to take on the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Alexa Held.

Clark, the sweet-shooting guard for the Fever, is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 21 points and 3 threes.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Fever, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Fever a 72.8% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mercury (+7.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 60.9% chance of staying under,.

Mercury vs. Fever odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Fever
Spread	+7.5 (-105)	-7.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+260	-290
Total	o177.5 (-110)	u177.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Fever picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +7.5	-105
Moneyline	Mercury	+260
Total	Under 177.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Fever player props

WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Indiana matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 17 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 23 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Fever.

When evaluating the first basket market, Aliyah Boston is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.3% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	17	3	1	2	27
Alyssa Thomas	16	8	9	0	44
Alexa Held	10	2	2	1	21
DeWanna Bonner	10	4	1	1	20
Valeriane Ayayi	9	5	2	1	22

Fever prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	23	2	4	3	36
Caitlin Clark	21	5	9	3	49
Aliyah Boston	15	9	4	1	37
S. Cunningham	9	3	1	2	18
M. Billings	6	4	1	0	15

Mercury vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details

Monday's game between the Fever and Mercury at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever
• Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Conclusion

We predict the Fever, with a 72.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.