May 21, 2026
WNBA player props today: Thursday's best props include Jovana Nogic [5/21/2026]
Read Article Best WNBA bets today: Thursday's picks include Sparks vs. Mercury play [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get WNBA picks today and best bets for Thursday, May 21, 2026.
Today’s best WNBA bets for May 21, 2026 are here, with Sparks vs. Mercury among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s WNBA schedule.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest WNBA odds to discover legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of WNBA best bets tonight [5/21, updated 5:12AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s best WNBA bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, May 21, 2026.
Sparks vs. Mercury under 176.5 points (+106)
- Edge: 21.8%
- Probability: 70.3%
- Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
Our model has identified value on under 176.5 points in Sparks vs. Mercury at +106 odds. A 70.3% probability produces an edge of 21.8%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.
Sparks +3.5 (-103)
- Edge: 8.8%
- Probability: 59.5%
- Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
Sparks +3.5 carries an 8.8% edge and a probability of 59.5% at -103 odds, according to our model.
Valkyries +7.5 (+103)
- Edge: 5.9%
- Probability: 55.2%
- Matchup: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
Valkyries +7.5 vs. Liberty at +103 odds shows a 5.9% edge, supported by a 55.2% probability in simulations.
Sparks ML (+141)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 36.3%
- Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
A 5.4% edge and 36.3% probability make Sparks at the moneyline at a value play in the Sparks vs. Mercury matchup, per our model.
Valkyries vs. Liberty under 169.5 points (+102)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 54.3%
- Matchup: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
Valkyries vs. Liberty under 169.5 points at +102 odds presents a 4.8% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.3%.
Lynx ML (-228)
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 66.7%
- Matchup: Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
Our model finds value on Lynx to win at -228 odds, supported by an edge of 4.7%.
Tempo vs. Lynx under 173.5 points (+102)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 53.6%
- Matchup: Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
Our model has uncovered value on Tempo vs. Lynx under 173.5 points at +102 odds. A 53.6% probability produces a 4.1% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.
WNBA best bets summary: Thursday, 5/21/2026
As of 5:12AM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparks vs. Mercury | Under 176.5 Points | +106 @ Polymarket | 21.8% | 70.3% |
| Sparks vs. Mercury | Sparks +3.5 | -103 @ Novig | 8.8% | 59.5% |
| Valkyries vs. Liberty | Valkyries +7.5 | +103 @ Novig | 5.9% | 55.2% |
| Sparks vs. Mercury | Sparks ML | +141 @ Polymarket | 5.4% | 36.3% |
| Valkyries vs. Liberty | Under 169.5 Points | +102 @ Polymarket | 4.8% | 54.3% |
| Tempo vs. Lynx | Lynx ML | -228 @ Polymarket | 4.7% | 66.7% |
| Tempo vs. Lynx | Under 173.5 Points | +102 @ Polymarket | 4.1% | 53.6% |
List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [5/21/2026]
- Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
- Tempo vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
- Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
Conclusion
Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for May 21, 2026, featuring plays such as under 176.5 points in the Sparks vs. Mercury matchup and Sparks +3.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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