Mercury vs. Sparks prediction: Los Angeles favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/22/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Sparks as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Sparks game.
The Sparks, powered by Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, are set to take on the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Sparks a 62.7% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Sparks (-2.5) have a 55.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 70.8% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Sparks odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -125 |
| Total | o178.5 (+100) | u178.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sparks -2.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Sparks | -125 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | -104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Sparks player props
WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Mercury vs. Sparks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 23 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 16 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sparks.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 48 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Dearica Hamby | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 33 |
| Rae Burrell | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| Ariel Atkins | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Erica Wheeler | 11 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 26 |
Mercury vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between the Sparks and Mercury at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sparks, with a 62.7% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
