Jul 5, 2026
WNBA player props today: Sunday's best props include NaLyssa Smith [7/5/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/5.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, July 5, 2026—are live with the Aces' Chennedy Carter projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Carter, Marina Mabrey and Kelsey Mitchell lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 5, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 15.7% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.5% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 15.5% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.2% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 14.7% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.8% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 11.5% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 10.9% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 10.6% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.9% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 9.9% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 8.6% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.4% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 7.3% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.9% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.7% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.4% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.4% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.1% |
| Tyasha Harris (Fever) | 4.8% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azzi Fudd | Wings | 1.6% | +1100 | 9.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, July 5, 2026, Chennedy Carter, Marina Mabrey and Kelsey Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Azzi Fudd shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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