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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, May 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/21.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, May 21, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Dearica Hamby projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Hamby, Breanna Stewart and Marina Mabrey lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 21, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.9% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 13.7% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 13.1% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.4% |
| Gabby Williams (Valkyries) | 12.1% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 12.0% |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | 12.0% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 11.9% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 11.5% |
| Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) | 11.3% |
| Satou Sabally (Liberty) | 11.3% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 10.8% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 10.7% |
| Veronica Burton (Valkyries) | 10.6% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.4% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 10.4% |
| Kaila Charles (Valkyries) | 9.9% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 9.9% |
| Jovana Nogic (Mercury) | 9.8% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 9.6% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.3% |
| Tiffany Hayes (Valkyries) | 9.0% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 8.9% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.5% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 8.3% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 8.0% |
| Kiki Rice (Tempo) | 7.9% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 7.1% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 7.1% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 6.8% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.6% |
| Kiah Stokes (Valkyries) | 6.1% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 2.9% | +950 | 12.4% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 2.1% | +1600 | 8.0% |
| Gabby Williams | Valkyries | 2.1% | +900 | 12.1% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 1.2% | +1200 | 8.9% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 0.8% | +950 | 10.4% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 0.8% | +1500 | 7.1% |
| Jovana Nogic | Mercury | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.8% |
| Kelsey Plum | Sparks | 0.7% | +900 | 10.7% |
| Satou Sabally | Liberty | 0.1% | +800 | 11.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, May 21, 2026, Dearica Hamby, Breanna Stewart and Marina Mabrey lead our first basket projections, while Courtney Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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