May 21, 2026
WNBA player props today: Thursday's best props include Jovana Nogic [5/21/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, May 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/21.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, May 21, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Dearica Hamby projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Hamby, Breanna Stewart and Kahleah Copper lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 21, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.9% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 13.7% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 12.5% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.4% |
| Gabby Williams (Valkyries) | 12.1% |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | 12.0% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 11.9% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.6% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 11.5% |
| Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) | 11.3% |
| Satou Sabally (Liberty) | 11.3% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 11.0% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 10.7% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 10.7% |
| Veronica Burton (Valkyries) | 10.6% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.4% |
| Jovana Nogic (Mercury) | 10.4% |
| Kaila Charles (Valkyries) | 9.9% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 9.9% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 9.6% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.3% |
| Tiffany Hayes (Valkyries) | 9.0% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 8.6% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 8.3% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.2% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 8.0% |
| Kiki Rice (Tempo) | 7.8% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 7.3% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 7.1% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 7.1% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 6.8% |
| Kiah Stokes (Valkyries) | 6.1% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Williams | Valkyries | 2.1% | +900 | 12.1% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 1.7% | +1500 | 8.0% |
| Kelsey Plum | Sparks | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| Jovana Nogic | Mercury | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.2% | +1600 | 7.1% |
| Satou Sabally | Liberty | 0.1% | +800 | 11.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, May 21, 2026, Dearica Hamby, Breanna Stewart and Kahleah Copper lead our first basket projections, while Gabby Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure
