Sky vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [7/7/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Sky and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Mercury a 65.0% chance of defeating the Sky.

According to our model, the Mercury (-3.5) have a 52.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 63.7% chance of staying under,.

Sky vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sky	Mercury
Spread	+3.5 (-105)	-3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+130	-152
Total	o172.5 (-110)	u172.5 (-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sky vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -3.5	-105
Moneyline	Mercury	-152
Total	Under 172.5	-106

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 172.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sky vs. Mercury player props

WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on Tuesday's Sky vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Sydney Taylor is expected to lead the Sky with 17 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sky prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sky are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Sydney Taylor	17	2	2	2	27
Kamilla Cardoso	14	9	3	0	34
S. Diggins-Smith	13	3	5	1	30
Azura Stevens	11	7	2	1	28
Natasha Cloud	9	3	4	1	23

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	4	2	2	31
Alyssa Thomas	16	9	9	0	47
Valeriane Ayayi	12	5	3	1	26
DeWanna Bonner	11	6	1	1	26
Alexa Held	10	2	2	2	20

Sky vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Mercury and Sky at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 65.0% win probability, will likely beat the Sky in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.