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Read Article Sun vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [7/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx predictions for WNBA Monday.
The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Target Center on Monday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Lynx game.
The Lynx, led by Natasha Howard, Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles, will face off against the Sun, who feature Brittney Griner, Aaliyah Edwards and Leila Lacan.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's WNBA game between the Sun and Lynx, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lynx an 85.9% chance of beating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+13.5) have a 58.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 166.5-point over/under has a 54.7% chance of staying under,.
Sun vs. Lynx odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sun | Lynx |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-115) | -13.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +650 | -1000 |
| Total | o166.5 (-102) | u166.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Lynx picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +13.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Sun | +650 |
| Total | Under 166.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +13.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Lynx player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Monday's Connecticut vs. Minnesota matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Brittney Griner is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists, while Natasha Howard is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Olivia Miles striking first with a 12.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
| Leila Lacan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
| Kennedy Burke | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Lynx prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Howard | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Kayla McBride | 17 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 32 |
| Olivia Miles | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 36 |
| C. Williams | 16 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 36 |
| Nia Coffey | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
Sun vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Lynx and Sun at Target Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with an 85.9% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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