Valkyries vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [5/21/2026]

The New York Liberty and Golden State Valkyries are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Thursday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Valkyries vs. Liberty game.

The Liberty, led by Breanna Stewart, Pauline Astier and Marine Johannes, are set to take on the Valkyries, who feature Veronica Burton, Gabby Williams and Kayla Thornton.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Valkyries vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Valkyries and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty a 67% chance of defeating the Valkyries.

According to our model, the Valkyries (+5.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Valkyries vs. Liberty odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Valkyries	Liberty
Spread	+5.5 (-104)	-5.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+200	-238
Total	o169.5 (-105)	u169.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Valkyries vs. Liberty picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Valkyries +5.5	-104
Moneyline	Valkyries	+200
Total	Under 169.5	-115

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Valkyries +5.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Valkyries vs. Liberty player props

Looking for Golden State vs. New York WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Veronica Burton is expected to lead the Valkyries with 12 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 17 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Valkyries prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Valkyries are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Veronica Burton	12	5	6	2	33
Gabby Williams	12	4	4	1	30
Kayla Thornton	11	6	1	2	25
Janelle Salaun	9	4	1	2	17
Tiffany Hayes	9	3	2	1	18

Liberty prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	17	7	4	1	39
Pauline Astier	16	4	4	1	32
Marine Johannes	12	3	3	3	27
Jonquel Jones	12	8	3	2	30
Satou Sabally	11	4	2	1	23

Valkyries vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Liberty and Valkyries at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Valkyries in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.