Jun 11, 2026
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Read Article Aces vs. Fire prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [6/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Portland Fire will square off with the favored Las Vegas Aces in WNBA action at Moda Center on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Fire game.
The Fire, with stars like Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Sarah Barker, will face off against the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA game between the Aces and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Aces an 82.6% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Aces (-9.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 170.5-point over/under has a 53.6% chance of staying under,.
Aces vs. Fire odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -9.5 (-115) | +9.5 (-104) |
| Moneyline | -450 | +360 |
| Total | o170.5 (-106) | u170.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fire +9.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -450 |
| Total | Under 170.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 170.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Fire player props
Betting on Las Vegas vs. Portland WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 30 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fire.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 16.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 30 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 59 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 41 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 35 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Chennedy Carter | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Megan Gustafson | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Sarah Barker | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| B. Carleton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| Emily Engstler | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
Aces vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Fire and Aces at Moda Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Thursday, June 11, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with an 82.6% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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