Jun 11, 2026
Sky vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 19 points in Thursday's WNBA matchup [6/11/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, June 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 6/11.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, June 11, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Kahleah Copper lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (June 11, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 16.2% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 13.1% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.0% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 12.9% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.6% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.6% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 12.6% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 12.5% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 12.1% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 11.8% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 11.7% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 11.4% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 11.2% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.2% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.1% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 10.7% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.6% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 10.6% |
| Maddy Siegrist (Wings) | 10.5% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.4% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.0% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 10.0% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 9.7% |
| Monique Akoa-Makani (Mercury) | 9.7% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.7% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 9.5% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 9.3% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.7% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 8.5% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.0% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.0% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.7% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.6% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 7.4% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 7.4% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.2% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.0% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 5.6% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.2% |
| Leonie Fiebich (Liberty) | 5.0% |
WNBA first basket picks today (June 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 5.5% | +1300 | 12.6% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 2.6% | +950 | 12.1% |
| Allisha Gray | Dream | 2.6% | +900 | 12.6% |
| Noemie Brochant | Mercury | 1.5% | +1600 | 7.4% |
| Maddy Siegrist | Wings | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 1.3% | +1500 | 7.6% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 0.9% | +1500 | 7.2% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 0.9% | +1300 | 8.0% |
| Jordin Canada | Dream | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
| Marine Johannes | Liberty | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 0.1% | +1700 | 5.6% |
| Rhyne Howard | Dream | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 6/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, June 11, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Kahleah Copper lead our first basket projections, while Megan Gustafson shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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