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Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [5/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Tuesday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Lynx vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Lynx, who feature Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Olivia Miles.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Lynx and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 73% chance of beating the Lynx.
According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 168.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
Lynx vs. Mercury odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lynx | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-110) | -4.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +176 | -198 |
| Total | o168.5 (-110) | u168.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lynx vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -4.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -198 |
| Total | Under 168.5 | -104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lynx vs. Mercury player props
WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Lynx vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Kayla McBride is expected to lead the Lynx with 16 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Lynx prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | 16 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
| C. Williams | 15 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 39 |
| Olivia Miles | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 34 |
| Natasha Howard | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 25 |
| Nia Coffey | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 48 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| Jovana Nogic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Natasha Mack | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
Lynx vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Mercury and Lynx at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Lynx in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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