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Pachuca vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Pachuca vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Sunday.
Pachuca will square off with Toluca in the Liga MX playoffs on Sunday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Pachuca vs. Toluca game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pachuca vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Liga MX game between Pachuca and Toluca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 30.9% chance of Pachuca winning, a 45.9% chance for Toluca, and a 23.3% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 61% chance of going over, according to our model.
Pachuca vs. Toluca odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Pachuca | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +215 | +115 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -165 | +115 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pachuca vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | +115 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -165 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pachuca vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PCH 1-1 TOL | 10.5% |
| PCH 1-2 TOL | 9.2% |
| PCH 0-1 TOL | 7.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 62.2% chance of both Pachuca and Toluca finding the net and a 37.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Pachuca vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between Pachuca and Toluca is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pachuca vs. Toluca
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Pachuca has a 30.9% win probability on Sunday, Toluca has a 45.9% win probability, and there is a 23.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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