Toluca vs. Pachuca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/3/2026]

Liga MX action continues on Sunday at 9:15 PM ET as Pachuca locks horns with Toluca in the playoffs at .

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Pachuca game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Toluca vs. Pachuca prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Pachuca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 59.6% chance of Toluca winning, a 19.7% chance for Pachuca, and a 20.7% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 62% chance of going over, according to our model.

Toluca vs. Pachuca odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Toluca	Pachuca	Draw
-110	+300	+270

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-145	+100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Toluca vs. Pachuca picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Toluca	-110
Total Goals	Over 2.5	-145

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Toluca vs. Pachuca: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Toluca win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
TOL 2-1 PCH	9.9%
TOL 1-1 PCH	9.5%
TOL 2-0 PCH	8.8%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 41.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Toluca vs. Pachuca game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between Toluca and Pachuca is scheduled to begin at 9:15 PM ET.

• Who: Toluca vs. Pachuca
• Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
• Time: 9:15 PM ET/6:15PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toluca has a 59.6% win probability on Sunday, Pachuca has a 19.7% win probability, and there is a 20.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.