May 15, 2026
Pumas UNAM vs. Pachuca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/17/2026]
Read Article Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM predictions for Liga MX Thursday.
Pachuca and Pumas UNAM will lock horns in the Liga MX playoffs on Thursday, with kickoff at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model predicts Pachuca as the most likely winner of the Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Liga MX game between Pachuca and Pumas UNAM, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model suggests a 44.4% chance of Pachuca winning, a 30.1% chance for Pumas UNAM, and a 25.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over, according to our model.
Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Pachuca | Pumas UNAM | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +105 | +280 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -125 | -114 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pumas UNAM | +280 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -114 |
According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Pumas UNAM to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PCH 1-1 PUM | 12.1% |
| PCH 1-0 PUM | 10.1% |
| PCH 2-1 PUM | 9.1% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.2% chance of both Pachuca and Pumas UNAM finding the net and a 45.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between Pachuca and Pumas UNAM is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pachuca vs. Pumas UNAM
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Pachuca has a 44.4% win probability on Thursday, Pumas UNAM has a 30.1% win probability, and there is a 25.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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