Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/9/2026]

Guadalajara will square off with Tigres UANL in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, commencing at 9:07 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX game between Guadalajara and Tigres UANL, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model suggests a 39.5% chance of Guadalajara winning, a 33.7% chance for Tigres UANL, and a 26.8% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under, according to our model.

Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL odds

We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Guadalajara	Tigres UANL	Draw
+110	+245	+260

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-125	-110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Tigres UANL	+245
Total Goals	Under 2.5	-110

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigres UANL to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
GUA 1-1 TUA	12.7%
GUA 1-0 TUA	10.6%
GUA 0-1 TUA	9.6%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 48.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between Guadalajara and Tigres UANL is scheduled to start at 9:07 PM ET.

• Who: Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL
• Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
• Time: 9:07 PM ET/6:07PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Guadalajara has a 39.5% win probability on Saturday, Tigres UANL has a 33.7% win probability, and there is a 26.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.