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Read Article Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Guadalajara will face Cruz Azul in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, commencing at 9:07 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX game between Guadalajara and Cruz Azul, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 41.0% chance of Guadalajara winning, a 32.7% chance for Cruz Azul, and a 26.3% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Guadalajara | Cruz Azul | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +110 | +230 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -130 | -110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruz Azul | +230 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -110 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cruz Azul to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| GUA 1-1 CAZ | 12.5% |
| GUA 1-0 CAZ | 10.3% |
| GUA 0-1 CAZ | 9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between Guadalajara and Cruz Azul is scheduled to start at 9:07 PM ET.
- Who: Guadalajara vs. Cruz Azul
- Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- Time: 9:07 PM ET/6:07PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Guadalajara has a 41.0% win probability on Saturday, Cruz Azul has a 32.7% win probability, and there is a 26.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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