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WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, May 14, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/14.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, May 14, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' Paige Bueckers projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Bueckers, Pauline Astier and Breanna Stewart lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 14, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.9% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 14.0% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 13.0% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 12.7% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 11.9% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 11.4% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 10.3% |
| Odyssey Sims (Wings) | 10.1% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 10.0% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 9.9% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 9.5% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.5% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 9.5% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.0% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 9.0% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 8.3% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 7.9% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 7.0% |
| Betnijah Laney (Liberty) | 6.6% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 5.6% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 2.3% | +1400 | 9.0% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 1.9% | +900 | 11.9% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 1.5% | +700 | 14.0% |
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 0.6% | +600 | 14.9% |
| Odyssey Sims | Wings | 0.1% | +900 | 10.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, May 14, 2026, Paige Bueckers, Pauline Astier and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Emily Engstler shapes as the strongest value play at +1400. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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