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WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/12.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, May 12, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Breanna Stewart projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Stewart, Paige Bueckers and Haley Jones lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 12, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.1% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.9% |
| Haley Jones (Fire) | 14.6% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 14.5% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 12.8% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.7% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 12.6% |
| Satou Sabally (Liberty) | 12.4% |
| Jovana Nogic (Mercury) | 12.3% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 12.2% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 12.0% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 11.9% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.8% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.0% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 10.8% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.5% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 10.2% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 10.0% |
| Odyssey Sims (Wings) | 9.9% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.8% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.6% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 9.6% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 9.6% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.3% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 9.2% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 8.8% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 8.8% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 8.4% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.3% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 8.1% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 7.5% |
| Betnijah Laney (Liberty) | 7.4% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 7.4% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 7.2% |
| Betnijah Laney (Liberty) | 7.1% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 6.9% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.7% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 6.6% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 6.0% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 5.7% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovana Nogic | Mercury | 3.9% | +1100 | 12.3% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 3.1% | +1400 | 9.8% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 2.7% | +1400 | 9.3% |
| Olivia Miles | Lynx | 1.9% | +1200 | 9.6% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 1.6% | +800 | 12.7% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
| Carla Leite | Fire | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, May 12, 2026, Breanna Stewart, Paige Bueckers and Haley Jones lead our first basket projections, while Jovana Nogic shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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