WNBA Championship Predictions: Who will win 2026 WNBA Finals?

1. New York Liberty (+225 on bet365)

Last season: 27-17, lost in first round

2026 Championship probability: 27.0% 

Favored on the books and by our model, we give the New York Liberty a 27.0% championship probability.

 After locking up stars Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones to long-term deals, the Liberty then added Satou Sabally, giving them arguably the deepest and most dangerous roster in the league.

The Liberty are a legitimate title contender on paper, but their fair odds would be roughly +270, meaning the best current odds of +225 are a bit shorter than the data says they should be.

But, this team is stacked and the big favorite, even over the reigning champs for a reason. Similar short favorites like the Thunder in the NBA and Avalanche in the NHL only saw their odds get shorter throughout the season, and a hot start for New York could shorten this up quickly.

Our advice? Look for a sportsbook promo boost that can take them to better odds, and possibly the best you'll get all season.

2. Indiana Fever (+550 on FanDuel)

Last season: 24-20, lost in semifinals

2026 Championship probability: 15.8% 

At +550, the Indiana Fever are priced as the third or fourth favorite depending on the book.

Our 15.8% probability translates to a fair price of around +533, meaning FanDuel is essentially right in line with the model. There's no glaring edge, but you're not overpaying for the Caitlin Clark hype as we've seen in the past two seasons.

Indiana's ceiling is as high as it's been in Clark's third season. While injuries derailed her sophomore campaign, the Fever still pushed to within a game of the WNBA Finals before falling to the eventual champion Aces.

The key question for Indiana is health and continuity. On the health front, they'll need better results. Last season, Clark was limited to just 13 games by quad and groin injuries.

But as far as continuity is concerned, the Fever retained seven of their core 12 players from last season and added depth pieces in Monique Billings and Tyasha Harris

 If Clark stays healthy for a full season alongside a reenergized Kelsey Mitchell, who cashed in with a one-year supermax to return, Indiana's 15.8% probability could make +550 look like a steal come the playoffs.

3. Atlanta Dream (+650 on DraftKings)

Last season: 30-14, lost in first round

2026 Championship probability: 12.7% 

Dimers puts the Dream at 12.7% to win it all, which implies fair odds of around +688.

Atlanta enters 2026 as one of the most interesting teams in the league after an aggressive offseason.

They locked up their top starters Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brionna Jones, and Jordin Canada on multiyear deals, before adding Angel Reese via trade from Chicago, adding last year's rebounds leader to a team that was already first in the league in rebounding.

The Dream's 30-14 record last season represented a massive 15-win improvement, and their first with a winning record since 2018, yet they still got bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

With four 2025 All-Stars on the same team, Atlanta will look to prove last year was not a fluke, but that first year of many contending seasons to come.

4. Dallas Wings (+4000 on BetRivers)

Last season: 10-34, last in WNBA

2026 Championship probability: 3.1% 

The Wings are a long shot at +4000, and Dimers' 3.1% probability, implying fair odds of around +3126, actually suggests this is one of the better values on the board. The key is getting them at these odds - they're widely available at +3000, which doesn't make them a longshot work taking.

That said, a 3.1% title probability is still a 3.1% title probability. This is a team that went 10-34 last season and whose primary goal is creating chemistry between their back-to-back No. 1 overall picks and former UConn teammates, Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd.

The Wings signed co-Defensive Player of the Year Alanna Smith alongside their draft pick of Fudd. A healthy, motivated Arike Ogunbowale returning to form would further bolster what could be a dangerous three-guard lineup, if she can bounce back from a career-low 15.5 points per game last season.

Temper expectations on this team, but don't be surprised if they are fighting for the 8th spot in the playoffs should things break right.

More on WNBA

• WNBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• WNBA Best Bets: Top picks for every individual matchup
• Best WNBA Props: Player prop edges from our predictive analytics model
• WNBA Projections Hub: Boxscore projections for every player in every game
• WNBA Futures Odds: Who will win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Stay informed with the latest WNBA betting news from Dimers throughout the season.

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you’re taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don’t be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.