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Atlas vs. Monterrey prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Atlas vs Monterrey predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Atlas will square off with Monterrey in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio Jalisco on Saturday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Monterrey as the most likely winner of the Atlas vs. Monterrey game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Atlas vs. Monterrey prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX game between Atlas and Monterrey, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model indicates a 33.3% chance of Atlas winning, a 41.7% chance for Monterrey, and a 25.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of going over, according to our model.
Atlas vs. Monterrey odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Atlas | Monterrey | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +180 | +145 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -130 | -110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Atlas vs. Monterrey picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Monterrey | +145 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -130 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Monterrey to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Atlas vs. Monterrey: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ATS 1-1 MNT | 11.8% |
| ATS 1-2 MNT | 8.9% |
| ATS 0-1 MNT | 8.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 43.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Atlas vs. Monterrey game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Atlas and Monterrey at Estadio Jalisco is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Atlas vs. Monterrey
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Jalisco
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Atlas has a 33.3% win probability on Saturday, Monterrey has a 41.7% win probability, and there is a 25.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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