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Sweden vs. Poland prediction: Sweden favored to win World Cup 2026 qualifier [3/31/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Sweden vs Poland predictions for World Cup 2026 play-offs this Tuesday.
World Cup 2026 qualifying action continues on Tuesday at 2:45 PM ET as Poland takes on Sweden at Strawberry Arena.
With the tournament just months away, qualification has reached the single-elimination stage.
This European play-off final sees Sweden and Poland battle for a place in Group F at this summer’s World Cup, where they will join the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts Sweden as the most likely winner of the Sweden vs. Poland game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sweden vs. Poland prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's World Cup 2026 qualifier between Sweden and Poland, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model suggests a 49.5% chance of Sweden winning, a 25.7% chance for Poland, and a 24.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over, according to our model.
Poland vs. Sweden odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Sweden | Poland | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +105 | +285 | +240 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +126 | -154 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sweden vs. Poland picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sweden | +105 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | +126 |
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sweden vs. Poland: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden 1-1 Poland | 11.8% |
| Sweden 1-0 Poland | 10.9% |
| Sweden 2-1 Poland | 9.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Sweden vs. Poland game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's Soccer World Cup game between Sweden and Poland at Strawberry Arena is scheduled to begin at 2:45 PM ET.
- Who: Sweden vs. Poland
- Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
- Time: 2:45 PM ET/11:45AM PT
- Venue: Strawberry Arena
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Sweden has a 49.5% win probability on Tuesday, Poland has a 25.7% win probability, and there is a 24.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Sweden vs. Poland insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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