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Toluca vs. Club Leon prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [4/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Club Leon predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Toluca will face Club Leon in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, commencing at 9:05 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Club Leon game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Club Leon prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX game between Toluca and Club Leon, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 60.6% chance of Toluca winning, a 19.0% chance for Club Leon, and a 20.4% chance of a draw.
Toluca vs. Club Leon odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | Toluca | Club Leon | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +330 | +300 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Club Leon picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | -120 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Club Leon: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 2-1 LEO | 9.9% |
| TOL 1-1 LEO | 9.3% |
| TOL 2-0 LEO | 8.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.8% chance of both Toluca and Club Leon finding the net and a 41.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Toluca vs. Club Leon game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Toluca and Club Leon is scheduled to commence at 9:05 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Club Leon
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Time: 9:05 PM ET/6:05PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 60.6% win probability on Saturday, Club Leon has a 19.0% win probability, and there is a 20.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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