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Toluca vs. San Luis prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs San Luis predictions for Liga MX Sunday.
Toluca will square off with Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX playoffs on Sunday, commencing at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Atletico San Luis game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Atletico San Luis prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Atletico San Luis, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model indicates a 72.8% chance of Toluca winning, an 11.4% chance for Atletico San Luis, and a 15.8% chance of a draw.
Toluca vs. Atletico San Luis odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -265 | +600 | +410 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Atletico San Luis picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | -265 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Atletico San Luis: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 2-0 ASL | 9.9% |
| TOL 2-1 ASL | 9.2% |
| TOL 3-0 ASL | 8.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 56.3% chance of both Toluca and Atletico San Luis finding the net and a 43.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Toluca vs. San Luis game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between Toluca and Atletico San Luis is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Atletico San Luis
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 72.8% win probability on Sunday, Atletico San Luis has an 11.4% win probability, and there is a 15.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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