Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay prediction: Why Austin Peay is favored to win in college football Week 6 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Austin Peay a 59.0% chance of defeating Tarleton State. Our predicted final score has Austin Peay winning 30-26. According to our model, Austin Peay (-2.5) has a 53.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 57.5 points has a 54.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Tarleton State +2.5 (-107) / Austin Peay -2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Tarleton State +128, Austin Peay -125
• Total: Over/Under 57.5 (-105/-111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Austin Peay -2.5 @ -110 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Austin Peay @ -125 via bet365
• Total: Over 57.5 @ -105 via Caesars

According to our best college football bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 57.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Austin Peay and Tarleton State at Fortera Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Fortera Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Austin Peay, with a 59.0% win probability, will likely beat Tarleton State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.