Necaxa vs. Puebla prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [9/11/2026]

Necaxa will square off with Puebla in Liga MX action at Estadio Victoria on Friday, commencing at 9:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Necaxa as the most likely winner in this Necaxa vs. Puebla prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Necaxa vs. Puebla prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Liga MX game between Necaxa and Puebla, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 53.2% chance of Necaxa winning, a 24.3% chance for Puebla, and a 22.5% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 59.8% chance of going over., with a 59.6% probability that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Puebla +250, Necaxa +100
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+124)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Necaxa @ +100 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -152 via FanDuel

According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Necaxa to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Necaxa 1-1 Puebla (10.3% probability)
• Necaxa 2-1 Puebla (9.7%)
• Necaxa 1-0 Puebla (8.5%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 59.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 40.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's Liga MX action between Necaxa and Puebla at Estadio Victoria is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Necaxa vs. Puebla
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Victoria

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Necaxa has a 53.2% win probability on Friday, Puebla has a 24.3% win probability, and there is a 22.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Liga MX prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.