Necaxa vs. Puebla prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [9/11/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Liga MX game between Necaxa and Puebla, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 53.2% chance of Necaxa winning, a 24.3% chance for Puebla, and a 22.5% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 59.8% chance of going over, with a 59.6% likelihood that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Puebla +240, Necaxa +100
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Necaxa @ +100 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -150 via FanDuel

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Necaxa to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Necaxa 1-1 Puebla (10.3% probability)
• Necaxa 2-1 Puebla (9.7%)
• Necaxa 1-0 Puebla (8.5%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 59.6% chance of both Necaxa and Puebla finding the net and a 40.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's Liga MX action between Necaxa and Puebla at Estadio Victoria is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Necaxa vs. Puebla
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Victoria

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Necaxa has a 53.2% win probability on Friday, Puebla has a 24.3% win probability, and there is a 22.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.