Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [7/21/2026]

Toluca and Pumas UNAM will meet in Liga MX on Tuesday, with kickoff at 11:05 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Pumas UNAM, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 57.7% chance of Toluca winning, a 20.2% chance for Pumas UNAM, and a 22.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 56.8% chance of going over, with a 55.2% chance that both teams score.

Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM odds

We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Toluca	Pumas UNAM	Draw
-170	+450	+320

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-150	+133

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Pumas UNAM @ +450 via Bet365
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +133 via DraftKings

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pumas UNAM to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
TOL 1-1 PUM	10.4%
TOL 2-1 PUM	9.9%
TOL 1-0 PUM	9.9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 55.2% chance of both Toluca and Pumas UNAM finding the net and a 44.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between Toluca and Pumas UNAM is scheduled to start at 11:05 PM ET.

• Who: Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM
• Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026
• Time: 11:05 PM ET/8:05PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toluca has a 57.7% win probability on Tuesday, Pumas UNAM has a 20.2% win probability, and there is a 22.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.