Jessica Pegula vs. Sorana Cirstea prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Jessica Pegula will take on Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Sunday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Jessica Pegula as the most likely winner in this Pegula vs. Cirstea prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Pegula vs. Cirstea prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Pegula-Cirstea women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Pegula a 73% chance of defeating Cirstea in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Pegula has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Pegula (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Sorana Cirstea +240, Jessica Pegula -270
• First Set: Pegula -227, Cirstea +175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Pegula @ -270 via DraftKings
• First Set: Cirstea @ -143 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jessica Pegula to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Jessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 6:30 PM ET.

• Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Sorana Cirstea
• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:30 PM ET/3:30PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Jessica Pegula, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat Sorana Cirstea at the US Open 2026.

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