Karen Khachanov vs. Benjamin Bonzi prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Karen Khachanov will take on Benjamin Bonzi in the third round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Saturday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Karen Khachanov as the most likely winner in this Khachanov vs. Bonzi prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Khachanov vs. Bonzi prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Khachanov-Bonzi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Khachanov a 64% chance of winning against Bonzi in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Khachanov has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Khachanov (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 38.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Benjamin Bonzi +190, Karen Khachanov -208
• First Set: Khachanov -175, Bonzi +137

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Bonzi @ +190 via DraftKings
• First Set: Bonzi @ -102 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Benjamin Bonzi to win.

Although Bonzi is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Karen Khachanov and Benjamin Bonzi is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 2:15 PM ET.

• Who: Karen Khachanov vs. Benjamin Bonzi
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:15 PM ET/11:15AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Karen Khachanov, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat Benjamin Bonzi at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.