MLS Picks and Parlay Today: Three bets to make on Wednesday, July 22

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Written by Dave Garofolo
Reviewed by Nick Slade

It's a full 15-game MLS slate on Wednesday, July 22, and we've found three bets to make using the Dimers data.

MLS soccer predictions and parlay picks

It's a big day for soccer betting as after MLS returned last week, all 30 teams are in action on Wednesday, July 22, for the first time since May. Dimers' MLS predictions are loaded for today's 15-game slate, from our best MLS bets to predicted scorelines for every match.

To celebrate the first full 15-game slate since the World Cup began, we're dropping the paywall on all Dimers Pro MLS editorial content.

That means every written article from game previews to best bets and unique daily pieces like this one are completely free to all users.

All season long, Dimers' data-driven algorithms simulate every MLS contest thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, rosters, recent form, and player-level data to predict the precise chance of every possible outcome in a match, as well as long-term outcomes like who will win the MLS Cup.

Like what you see in our free preview? You can get Dimers Pro for 50% off when you use promo code SOCCER26 when you purchase your first subscription.

MLS picks and +622 parlay [Wednesday, July 22]

With so many matches on, there are dozens of bets across Moneylines, totals and even our correct score predictions.

To narrow down all these plays, we're focusing on one Dimers Pro edge bet in each of the following matches:

Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United

New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC

⚽ Colorado Rapids vs. San Diego FC

Each of these bets carries at least a 2.5% edge and a 52% probability.

Bet: Houston ML (-125)

Match: Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United

Start time: 8:30PM ET

Dimers gives Houston a 58.2% win probability with a 2.7% edge over D.C. United tonight.

Houston holds a dominant 10-1-2 home mark against D.C., including a 4-1 win the last time the two sides met in 2024. Houston enters in better form, having gone 5-2-1 with four clean sheets over their final eight matches before the World Cup break, while sitting seventh in the West. D.C. United entered the break on a four-match winless run, though they drew three of those.

Both teams own a -4 goal differential, though it's Houston trending in the better direction before the break and a 58.2% win probability says they should be no shorter than -140.

Our most likely correct scores feature a Houston win in five of the top six, led by a 1-0 victory at 10.5%.

Bet: New England ML (-110)

Match: New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC

Start time: 7:30 PM ET

New England has a 55.2% probability of winning with a 2.8% edge, and the on-paper matchup favors New England heavily; they're the third-best defense in the East, having conceded just 18 goals before the break, and they've been nearly unbeatable at Gillette Stadium, posting a 7-1-0 home record.

Toronto, by contrast, hasn't won since the start of April, sitting at 3-6-6 overall, and they just extended their winless streak with a scoreless draw at CF Montreal last Thursday.

At fair odds of nearly -125, New England is a value play in a favorable spot.

A 2-1 (10.0%) and 1-0 (9.9%) victory both project as the most likely paths to victory for New England.

Bet: Colorado ML (+110)

Match: Colorado Rapids vs. San Diego FC

Start time: 9:30 PM ET

Though the lowest probability of these three at 52.1%, we also get the biggest edge of 3.0% against the plus-money odds on Colorado. 

These teams sit at 10th and 11th in the West as both sides return from the World Cup break in a virtual dead heat in the standings, with San Diego regularly struggling on the road.

Colorado will be shorthanded, missing goalkeeper Zack Steffen, who is still working back from a shoulder injury, among other key players, but San Diego FC has personnel issues of their own, notably missing their fullbacks Luca Bombino and Willy Kumado, and have had disciplinary struggles, seeing five red cards this season.

At plus-money, this bet is a great value with our 52.1% probability equating to fair odds of -110.

A 2-1 victory is the most likely result in this match at 9.5%, and strongly aligns with our 64.4% probability of over 2.5 goals.

File-2.pngToday's three MLS picks as seen in the Dimers App.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.

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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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