As Senate and Spurs markets surge, Polymarket and Kalshi promo code "DIMERS" extends $50 + $10 bonuses into Texas

It is a big prediction market weekend for Texas. The Spurs are in Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference Finals on Saturday, drawing a wave of new Polymarket accounts from San Antonio fans trading the series with the $50 bonus activated by promo code DIMERS. And on the political side, Texas Senate odds are quietly surging—moving more volume than any other political market on Polymarket or Kalshi today.

James Talarico has raised $40.3 million for his Texas Senate campaign. He leads Ken Paxton in public polling, 43.8% to 40.3%. He has four times Paxton's small-donor base. By almost every conventional campaign metric, he is running ahead.

But prediction markets aren't buying it.

On both Polymarket and Kalshi this morning, Paxton is a 61% favorite over Talarico. The two platforms—which operate on entirely different market structures—have independently arrived at the same number, a rare alignment that reflects strong trader conviction. Texas Senate is currently the top trending search query on Polymarket, drawing more volume than any other political market on the platform today.

In yet another early-weekend development, traders on both platforms can now access bonuses for these markets using promo code DIMERS: deposit $20 on Polymarket and receive a $50 bonus, or trade $10 on Kalshi and receive a $10 bonus.

The Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi Are in Lockstep

Figures current as of May 29th, 2026. Market resolves November 3, 2026. Check feed above for updated Polymarket Texas Senate odds.

When two structurally different platforms—Polymarket operates peer-to-peer, Kalshi runs an exchange-style order book—converge on the same number, it signals genuine consensus rather than noise. Neither platform is moving the other's price. They are reaching the same conclusion independently.

Why Traders Are Fading the Polls

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. That streak has held through good Democratic cycles and bad, through well-funded campaigns and underfunded ones, and through multiple candidates who outperformed national expectations everywhere except in a general election in Texas.

Talarico's fundraising advantage is real—$40.3 million raised against Paxton's $7 million, with 57% of his donors giving $200 or less versus 15% of Paxton's. His polling lead is real. But the market is pricing those factors against a structural baseline that has absorbed similar advantages before and still produced Republican wins by double digits.

At 61¢, traders are not saying Talarico cannot win. They are saying the probability is roughly one in three—and that Texas's partisan history is worth more than the polling margin and the fundraising gap combined. That is a defensible position with $364,000 in capital behind it on the winner market alone, across a total Texas Senate market suite running into the millions. Explore the full 2026 Midterms picture at Dimers' prediction markets politics hub.

Kalshi's Margin Markets: Where the Interesting Positions Are

Kalshi carries four margin-of-victory contracts on the Texas Senate race that Polymarket does not currently offer. For traders who believe the polls are underrating Talarico—or who think Paxton wins but want to define exactly how—these are the most granular positions available on any US prediction platform:

The drop from 37% to 12% across just six margin points is steep. Traders who think Talarico wins at all are pricing his most likely path as a squeaker—the market implies a blowout Democratic win is roughly three times less likely than a narrow one. For traders who want to short the large-margin scenarios, the 14¢ and 12¢ contracts represent the sharpest edges in the Texas Senate market right now. Trade all Kalshi Texas Senate margin markets with promo code DIMERS here.

Also on Polymarket: Spurs vs. Thunder, Game 7

Texas is pulling double duty on Polymarket this weekend. While San Antonio politics traders are watching the Senate market, Spurs fans have been opening accounts with promo code DIMERS to trade on Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference Finals, which tips off Saturday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Polymarket odds current as of May 29th, 2026.

OKC is a 59¢ moneyline favorite, but the spread is essentially a pick'em—50¢ Thunder, 51¢ Spurs to cover the 3.5. That gap between the moneyline and the spread price is the sharpest signal in the market: traders think the Thunder win most of the time, but San Antonio covers nearly as often. Follow Dimers' NBA predictions hub as Game 7 odds move through Saturday.

Promo Code DIMERS: Active on Polymarket and Kalshi

Enter DIMERS at registration on either platform. The code cannot be applied to an existing account. Explore more at Dimers' Kalshi hub and Dimers' Polymarket hub.

More Polymarket DIMERS politics articles on Dimers.com

Get the Polymarket promo code DIMERS here · Get the Kalshi promo code DIMERS here

Polymarket disclaimer: Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Trading involves risk. Only participate where legally permitted and never trade more than you can afford to lose.
Kalshi Disclaimer: Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.