Bills vs. Rams Prediction: Aaron Donald gets another shot at Josh Allen on Monday Night Football

After walking away from football two years ago, Aaron Donald returned to the Rams this season at the age of 35 to chase a ring. On Monday night, he faces a man that might be the one standing in his way in February.

Josh Allen is 2-0 against Donald, but the three-time Defensive Player of the Year has left his mark. He sacked Allen twice and forced a fumble in their 2020 meeting, then picked up the 99th sack of his career in the 2022 opener at SoFi. Buffalo won both, 35-32 and 31-10. By the time Allen threw three touchdowns and ran for three more in a 44-42 loss here in December 2024, Donald was retired.

The comeback hasn't gone to script just yet. In two games back, the eight-time All-Pro has four tackles and no sacks, and he sat out last week with a sore back. But the 2024 MVP arrives with some battles of his own to contend with, from a knee that took a battering a couple of weeks ago, to a short-handed receiver room.

Kalshi has the Rams as 62c favorites. Our NFL predictions model likes them even more at 63.8%, with the bigger gaps in the margin and in how Allen scores. We have Los Angeles winning by four or more 51.3% of the time against 48c on Kalshi, and Allen throwing one or fewer touchdown passes 56.7% of the time against 50c.

Dimers trade of the night, via Kalshi

Prices, model output and everything else can be found in our Bills vs. Rams prediction hub.

Can Aaron Donald still get to Josh Allen?

The Rams defense didn't need Donald to look the part last week. Philadelphia went 0-for-12 on third downs, Jalen Hurts finished 12 of 27 for 93 yards, and the Eagles' final possession ended with two sacks.

"I think our defense kept giving us a reason to believe," Sean McVay said after the win.

Allen isn't Hurts on a bad day, though, and the man who sacked him twice in their first meeting knows it.

"He can hurt you a lot of different ways," Donald said this week. "He's not easy to take down, and he's a playmaker."

Defensive coordinator Chris Shula called Allen "obviously one of the ultimate competitors in this league."

Donald was limited Thursday, full Friday and rested Saturday, and he carries no game status into Monday. Myles Garrett, whose arrival got Donald thinking about a comeback in the first place, is on injured reserve after knee surgery and can't be activated until Oct. 18, so the two still haven't played a snap together. Without him, it's on Donald to win inside and make Buffalo's protection pick its poison.

Aaron Donald, Colby Parkinson + Jaylen Watson are good to go for Week 5. Full Injury Report » https://t.co/FLAh3GqGb7 https://t.co/pocDMraxI5

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 10, 2026

The model sides with Los Angeles too. Kalshi has the Rams favored at 62c, and we like them even more at 63.8%. The bigger edge is on the spread, which we get to below.

Why fade Josh Allen's passing touchdowns?

Because Josh Allen is his own end zone.

Through four games, the 2024 MVP has seven rushing touchdowns and six passing touchdowns. He threw two at Houston, three against Detroit, none against the Chargers and one against New England, so he's cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns in just two of four starts. Per Covers, he has 13 red-zone touches to James Cook's 10, and six carries inside the 5 to Cook's four.

Last week, Buffalo's all-time leader in scrimmage touchdowns passed Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed for the franchise record with 88. His 86th rushing touchdown tied Priest Holmes for 16th in NFL history. When the Bills get close, the ball tends to stay with No. 17.

That pattern has only firmed up as the receiver room has thinned out. Josh Palmer is out with a shoulder injury, DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder of his own, and fourth-round rookie Skyler Bell is set to make his NFL debut on Monday Night Football.

Then there's the knee. Allen took a hit to his left knee in the fourth quarter of the Week 3 win over the Chargers, then ran five times for 4 yards in the 29-26 loss to the Patriots. He shut that down quickly.

"There's no truth to that. Feeling great," Allen said. "They had a good plan keeping me rallied in the pocket. If anything, they were forcing me to go left."

Keeping Allen in the pocket and making him beat you from there is the whole job description for an interior rusher. It's what Donald built a future Hall of Fame career on.

The model isn't betting against Allen scoring. We have him at 51.8% for an anytime touchdown, almost dead on Kalshi's 52c, and project him for 41 rushing yards and 247 passing yards. What we're betting on is how he scores. We make him 56.7% to throw one or fewer touchdown passes, and the No side of Allen 2+ passing touchdowns is 50c.

Why does our model like the Rams to cover?

Our model projects a Rams win by four, and the Rams offense backs that up.

Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP, went 32 of 51 for 317 yards in Philadelphia. He threw two interceptions too, but he finished the job with the game on the line. Puka Nacua came back from a two-game absence with nine catches for 125 yards and a rushing touchdown. Kyren Williams scored twice, including the 7-yard winner with 1:10 left.

Buffalo is coming off its first loss under Joe Brady, and it gave up 29 points to New England doing it. Ed Oliver is out, and Dee Alford and Landon Jackson are questionable.

We project 287 passing yards for Stafford, 98 receiving yards for Nacua and 74 rushing yards for Williams, who is 58.5% to score in our model against 59c on Kalshi.

Kalshi prices "Rams win by over 3.5 points" at 48c, so the market has this closer to a coin flip than we do. We have it at 51.3%, the best side edge on the board. Taking the Bills +3.5 means paying 53c for a 48.7% shot, so there's no value on that side.

Bills vs. Rams prop edges on Kalshi

A couple, if you want something alongside the spread. Here's how our NFL props model lines up against Kalshi:

If Allen keeps the touchdowns for himself, someone downstream pays for it. Kalshi's touchdown prices on Buffalo's pass catchers look expensive. Khalil Shakir is 29c against our 22.7%, Dalton Kincaid is 33c against 27.3% and Keon Coleman is 28c against 23.5%.

Find every projection in our NFL player projections and the full board in our NFL props page.

Three ways to play it

1. Full size on the Rams. Buy Yes on "Rams win by over 3.5 points" at 48c. Each contract pays $1 if Los Angeles wins by four or more.

2. Split it with the Allen prop. Put half on Rams -3.5 at 48c and half on No for Allen 2+ passing touchdowns at 50c. Both positions lean on the same idea. If Donald and the Rams front win their matchups, Allen's throwing lanes shrink and Los Angeles gets separation.

3. Buy now, manage in-game. Kalshi positions can be sold before the final whistle. If the Rams are up two scores at halftime, you can sell your -3.5 position to lock in profit. If Allen throws an early touchdown pass, you can reassess the No before a second one makes the decision for you.

For more of the week's top plays, check out our NFL best bets and the latest NFL odds.

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Bills vs. Rams FAQ

What is the best Kalshi trade for Bills vs. Rams on Monday Night Football? Our trade of the night is Rams -3.5, buying Yes on "Rams win by over 3.5 points" at 48c. Our model makes it 51.3%. The best prop is No on Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdowns at 50c, which we make 56.7%.

Who will win Bills vs. Rams? Our model gives the Rams a 63.8% chance to win and projects a 29-25 final. The Bills are at 36.2%.

What are the Bills vs. Rams odds on Kalshi? As of Sunday afternoon, Kalshi had the Rams at 62c and the Bills at 39c to win, Rams -3.5 at 48c, and Over 54.5 points at 50c.

Is Aaron Donald playing against the Bills? Yes. Donald missed the Week 4 win over the Eagles with a sore back. He has no game status for Monday Night Football. Myles Garrett remains on injured reserve.

Will Josh Allen score a touchdown against the Rams? Our model makes Allen 51.8% to score an anytime touchdown, in line with Kalshi's 52c. He has seven rushing touchdowns in four games, so his most likely route to the end zone is on the ground.

Can I sell a Kalshi position before the game ends? Yes. Kalshi contracts trade live throughout the game, so you can sell at the current price to lock in a profit or cut a loss before the final whistle.