Brock Bowers Returns: Dimers model projects team-high 44 yards, 32% TD chance vs. Saints

The Las Vegas Raiders get one of their best offensive weapons back in Week 3, as TE Brock Bowers is set for his season debut following a late knee procedure just days before the NFL season began.

After a 2-0 start without their top pass-catcher, the Raiders have a chance to secure their first 3-0 start since 2021, and Dimers NFL predictions have updated to reflect Bowers' return for Raiders vs. Saints.

Bowers had a meniscus trim on his left knee on September 8, five days before the opener, and was inactive for the wins over the Dolphins and Chargers. Head coach Klint Kubiak has now said Bowers will practice this week and is "gearing up to play Sunday against the Saints," aiming to practice fully all week.

Brock Bowers projections vs. Saints

When healthy, Bowers is a problem for defenses. As a rookie in 2024, he caught 112 passes, the most ever by a rookie at any position, and his 1,194 yards broke Mike Ditka's 1961 record for a rookie tight end. A PCL injury and bone bruise limited him to 12 games in 2025, but he still produced 64 catches, 680 yards and a career-high seven touchdowns.Brock Bowers' projection from the Dimers model.

Dimers' NFL Player Projections hub has Bowers straight back at the top of the Raiders' passing game for his 2026 debut. He is projected for 44 receiving yards, the most on the team, with a 32.4% chance to score a touchdown, the second-best touchdown probability of any Raider.

Those numbers may seem a little conservative for a player of his talent, which makes sense for a first game back from knee surgery, but even so, he projects to be Cousins' first read.

How Bowers changes the rest of the Raiders offense

TE2 Michael Mayer loses the most.

He filled in as the main tight end and caught 9 of 11 targets (both second-most on the team) for 55 yards across the first two weeks.

With Bowers back, Mayer returns to a blocking-heavy TE2 role, though he does still project as our fifth-most likely Raider to get a touchdown at just over 15%.

WR Tre Tucker has been the breakout for Las Vegas with 5 catches for 119 yards against the Chargers, including two catches over 40 yards and the touchdown that opened the scoring. He's projected for 39 yards with a 22.6% touchdown probability. Bowers draws more coverage over the middle, which should leave Tucker more single coverage on the outside.

Our projections for the Raiders WRs on Sunday.

The ground game should be largely unaffected as Ashton Jeanty stays the centerpiece. He ran for 102 yards and caught two touchdowns in Week 1, and the model gives him a team-high 48.0% anytime touchdown probability along with 58 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards.

Bowers' return should push safeties back and open up more running room, but it may also take away some of the short plays that went to Jeanty over the first two games after leading the team with 13 targets.

Who will win Raiders vs. Saints?

A win and a 3-0 start would be a big deal in Las Vegas.

The Raiders have done it only once since their 2002 run to the Super Bowl, most recently in 2021.

It has also been a strong sign historically; they have missed the playoffs only once in their last 10 seasons that began 3-0, currently priced at +245 to make the playoffs on DraftKings.

But, the Saints (1-1) are a tough opponent. Tyler Shough led a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Baltimore 24-17, and his 662 passing yards through two games are the most by a Saints quarterback since Drew Brees in 2009. This is also New Orleans' home opener at the Caesars Superdome.

The Raiders' +160 moneyline implies about a 38.5% chance to win.

That's slightly higher than Dimers' 36.7%, so there's no value on Las Vegas outright, unless you can find them at +175 odd or better.

At 3.5-point underdogs, Las Vegas gets a 50$ chance to cover from our model, though our final score of 24-21 does suggest they keep it within a field goal.

Bet on NFL Week 3 with Dimers Pro

Get Dimers' full player projections, touchdown probabilities and best bets for every Week 3 game, including edges on player props like Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and more with Dimers Pro.