Broncos vs. Chargers prediction favors Denver to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

Since our Broncos-Chargers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Broncos and Chargers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Broncos a 64.2% chance of defeating the Chargers in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 23-19.

Key factors favoring the Broncos:

• Chargers QB situation
• Broncos team rating
• Chargers offense

According to our model, the Broncos (-3.5) have a 51.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 50.6% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• QB ratings
• Chargers recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Broncos -3.5 (+106) / Chargers +3.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Broncos -167, Chargers +165
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Broncos -3.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Broncos @ 63¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Broncos -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Broncos vs. Chargers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Broncos vs. Chargers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, Omarion Hampton is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. Chargers.

Our projections give Hampton a 35.0% chance of scoring a TD at SoFi Stadium, while the running back is a 9.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): 34.5% probability
• RJ Harvey (RB): 33.9%
• Courtland Sutton (WR): 27.0%
• Jaylen Waddle (WR): 26.4%
• Bo Nix (QB): 20.2%

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 35.0% prob.
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 25.0%
• Oronde Gadsden (TE): 22.1%
• Tre' Harris (WR): 19.8%
• Kimani Vidal (RB): 14.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): 8.3% prob.
• RJ Harvey (RB): 8.2%
• Courtland Sutton (WR): 6.2%
• Jaylen Waddle (WR): 6.0%
• Bo Nix (QB): 4.5%

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 9.2% prob.
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 6.2%
• Oronde Gadsden (TE): 5.3%
• Tre' Harris (WR): 4.7%
• Kimani Vidal (RB): 3.4%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Broncos and Chargers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Bo Nix is projected for 227 passing yards. The Chargers' Justin Herbert is expected to throw for 203 yards.

Broncos rushing

• J.K. Dobbins: 58 yds
• RJ Harvey: 30 yds
• Bo Nix: 17 yds

Chargers rushing

• Omarion Hampton: 45 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 38 yds
• Justin Herbert: 27 yds

Broncos receiving

• Jaylen Waddle: 60 yds
• Courtland Sutton: 44 yds
• RJ Harvey: 28 yds
• Troy Franklin: 25 yds
• Evan Engram: 23 yds

Chargers receiving

• Tre' Harris: 57 yds
• Oronde Gadsden: 36 yds
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 22 yds
• Derius Davis: 18 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 14 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 action between the Chargers and Broncos at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Broncos, with a 64.2% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.