Oct 14, 2026
Updated Super Bowl predictions, odds and best NFL Division winner bets after Week 5
Read Article Dimers' AI model says these 3 NFL Week 6 games could be headed to overtime on Sunday
First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Three Week 5 games went to overtime. Our model flags Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Panthers, and Saints-Giants as Week 6’s closest projected NFL games.
Three Week 5 games needed overtime. Baltimore beat Atlanta 30-23 behind backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, Buffalo outlasted the Rams 37-34 on Monday night, and the Giants and Commanders played to a 27-27 tie after both teams made late mistakes in the extra period.
That makes the NFL Week 6 predictions worth a closer look. Our model projects two Week 6 games to be decided by a single point and a third by two points, the tightest margins on the slate. Packers vs. Cowboys and Eagles vs. Panthers are both projected as one-point games, while Saints vs. Giants comes in at 24-22. The moneyline probabilities tell the same story, with no team in these three games given better than a 56.7% chance to win.
A close predicted score doesn't mean overtime is likely, since regulation ties are rare even in tight games. It does flag the matchups where the data sees the least separation between two teams, which is useful context whether you're betting the spread, the moneyline, or a live line late in the fourth quarter.
Cowboys vs. Packers prediction
Predicted score: Packers 26, Cowboys 25
Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field
Win probability: Packers 56.7%, Cowboys 43.3%
Green Bay comes in off its most complete game of the season. Jordan Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns, both to Christian Watson, and the defense forced five turnovers in a 31-7 rout of Chicago. The Packers are 3-2.
The win came at a cost. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is believed to have ruptured his Achilles late in that game, which thins out the interior of a defense that now faces Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
Dallas is 2-3 after losing 24-16 at home to a Tampa Bay team that had not won a game. The Cowboys played that game on a Thursday, so they arrive at Lambeau with 10 days between games. Lamb has already shown what he can do in a close finish this season, catching a career-high 17 passes and the winning touchdown with 40 seconds left in Week 4 at Houston.
A one-point projection on Sunday night puts this game squarely in the range where a late field goal decides it.
Panthers vs. Eagles prediction
Predicted score: Eagles 21, Panthers 20
Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field
Win probability: Eagles 54.8%, Panthers 45.2%
Philadelphia has lost three straight, and each loss has been closer than the last: 27-7 in Chicago, 24-20 to the Rams after leading by 10 in the fourth quarter, and 19-17 to Jacksonville in London on Cam Little's 57-yard field goal as time expired.
The roster around Jalen Hurts has changed fast. Right tackle Lane Johnson retired and center Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore in the same week, with guard Landon Dickerson already on injured reserve. Saquon Barkley's status remains in question with a hamstring injury, and backup Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve after core muscle surgery.
Carolina arrives at 2-2 and rested after its bye. The last time we saw the Panthers, Bryce Young threw for 329 yards and Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns in a 32-26 win over Detroit.
The model still leans Philadelphia at home, but a 54.8% win probability makes this close to a coin flip, and the Eagles' last two losses were both decided in the final four minutes.
Saints vs. Giants prediction
Predicted score: Saints 24, Giants 22
Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium
Win probability: Saints 54.7%, Giants 45.3%
This projection runs against the standings. Our model gives 1-4 New Orleans a 54.7% chance to win on the road against a Giants team that leads the NFC East at 3-1-1.
The Giants already know what extra time feels like. They trailed Washington by 14 in the fourth quarter last week before Jameis Winston, who threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, tied it on a 17-yard pass to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. New York then had a chance to win in overtime before Cam Skattebo fumbled in field goal range, and the game finished 27-27. Kicker Dominic Zvada missed multiple field goals along the way.
New Orleans has lost three straight. Tyler Shough threw for 96 yards and two interceptions in a 23-13 home loss to unbeaten Minnesota, and the Saints' offense has struggled to start games under Kellen Moore.
The Giants' last two games were both decided on the final play, and the model sees two points between these teams despite the gap in their records.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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