Chargers vs. Bills prediction favors Buffalo to win in NFL Week 3 [2026]

Since our Chargers-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Chargers and Bills, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Bills a 76.1% chance of beating the Chargers in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 29-20.

Key factors favoring the Bills:

• Buffalo Bills Power Rankings
• Buffalo Bills Offensive Efficiency
• Los Angeles Chargers QB Change / Form

According to our model, the Bills (-7.5) have a 52.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Chargers +7.5 (-106) / Bills -7.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Chargers +300, Bills -308
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-113/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bills -7.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bills @ 75¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 49.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bills -7.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Chargers vs. Bills TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Bills?

According to our model, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chargers vs. Bills.

Our projections give Cook a 57.4% chance of scoring a TD at Highmark Stadium, while the running back is a 13.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 48.2% probability
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 29.9%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 23.3%
• Oronde Gadsden (TE): 23.1%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 17.0%

Buffalo Bills

• James Cook (RB): 57.4% prob.
• Josh Allen (QB): 52.4%
• DJ Moore (WR): 34.6%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 30.9%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 23.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 11.3% prob.
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 6.1%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 4.5%
• Oronde Gadsden (TE): 4.5%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 3.2%

Buffalo Bills

• James Cook (RB): 13.1% prob.
• Josh Allen (QB): 11.4%
• DJ Moore (WR): 6.5%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 5.7%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 4.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Bills. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 232 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 245 yards.

Chargers rushing

• Omarion Hampton: 62 yds
• Justin Herbert: 24 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 22 yds

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 86 yds
• Josh Allen: 37 yds
• Ray Davis: 15 yds

Chargers receiving

• Ladd McConkey: 65 yds
• Quentin Johnston: 42 yds
• Oronde Gadsden: 39 yds
• Tre' Harris: 37 yds
• Omarion Hampton: 14 yds

Bills receiving

• Dalton Kincaid: 59 yds
• DJ Moore: 55 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 48 yds
• Keon Coleman: 32 yds
• James Cook: 16 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 game between the Bills and Chargers at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 76.1% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.