NFL player props today: Week 5 best props include Roschon Johnson [10/11/2026]

Roschon Johnson over 9.5 rushing yards (-300)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 80.1%
• Projection: 25.5
• Game: Bears vs. Packers (1:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on Bears' Roschon Johnson over 9.5 rushing yards. A probability of 80.1% gives this play an edge of 5.1% at -300 odds.

Isaac TeSlaa over 9.5 receiving yards (-335)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 80.0%
• Projection: 32.2
• Game: Lions vs. Cardinals (4:25PM ET)

Isaac TeSlaa’s receiving yards prop shows a 3.0% edge at -335 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 32.2 receiving yards on the over 9.5 line.

Chase Brown over 9.5 receiving yards (-317)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 80.0%
• Projection: 26.6
• Game: Bengals vs. Dolphins (1:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Chase Brown over 9.5 receiving yards, with simulations showing an 80.0% probability and a 3.9% edge at -317.

Keaton Mitchell over 19.5 rushing yards (-245)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 76.7%
• Projection: 37.9
• Game: Broncos vs. Chargers (4:05PM ET)

Our model projects Keaton Mitchell to record 37.9 rushing yards today, creating an edge of 5.7% on the over 19.5 line at -245 odds.

Olamide Zaccheaus over 0.5 receptions (-218)

• Edge: 7.4%
• Probability: 76.0%
• Projection: 1.4
• Game: Ravens vs. Falcons (8:20PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Olamide Zaccheaus over 0.5 receptions for Falcons, showing an edge of 7.4% at -218 odds.

Deshaun Watson under 6.5 rushing attempts (-137)

• Edge: 17.2%
• Probability: 75.0%
• Game: Browns vs. Jets (1:00PM ET)

Deshaun Watson’s rushing attempts prop shows an edge of 17.2% at -137 odds, supported by a 75.0% probability according to our model.

Austin Hooper over 0.5 receptions (-218)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 73.1%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Ravens vs. Falcons (8:20PM ET)

Our model projects Austin Hooper for 1.3 receptions for Falcons, creating an edge of 4.6% on over 0.5 at -218 odds.

Isaiah Davis over 9.5 rushing yards (-178)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 70.7%
• Projection: 20.6
• Game: Browns vs. Jets (1:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Isaiah Davis for 20.6 rushing yards, creating value on the over 9.5 line at -178 odds and a 6.7% edge.

Kyler Murray over 17.5 rushing yards (-110)

• Edge: 17.1%
• Probability: 69.4%
• Projection: 30.2
• Game: Vikings vs. Saints (1:00PM ET)

A 17.1% edge on the over 9.5 rushing yards line makes Kyler Murray a value play in Vikings vs. Saints, with our model projecting him for 30.2 rushing yards at -110 odds.

Garrett Wilson over 6.5 receptions (-160)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 69.1%
• Projection: 5.5
• Game: Browns vs. Jets (1:00PM ET)

Simulations project Garrett Wilson for 5.5 receptions here, creating a 7.6% edge on the over 6.5 line at -160 odds.

NFL player prop summary: Week 5, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:56PM ET:

NFL promo for Week 5

Today's player props include Roschon Johnson over 9.5 rushing yards. Make the most of them with this Polymarket offer:

Conclusion

For October 11, 2026, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Roschon Johnson, Isaac TeSlaa and Chase Brown. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.