NFL Week 4 RB projections signal two backs to rack up rushing yards

Week 4 of the NFL is our last one before bye weeks begin, which means it's the last time every single team will be playing this week until later in the season, giving us more NFL betting opportunities this weekend than we'll have for a while.

NFL player props are where our model identifies the most betting value this weekend, with more than 120 total props available across a dozen markets. Some of those markets, notably rushing yards and receiving yards, carry a Dimers "Sweet Spot" as our most profitable markets to date. We're looking at the former, rushing yards, for two players to back on NFL Sunday.

Bucky Irving and Kyren Williams are two running backs the Dimers NFL predictions model likes to climb the rushing yards ladder on Sunday. One is set up for a heavy workload, and the other is projected to clear his line by more than 10 yards.

If you're unfamiliar, a prop ladder is when you back a player to hit several yardage marks in one game, such as 50+, 60+, 70+, etc, with bigger payouts the higher he climbs.

The best ladder targets combine volume, a vulnerable run defense and Dimers projections that point above the market. Both of these backs check all three boxes.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers)

At the heart of Bucky Irving's opportunity is the QB situation for Tampa Bay in Buccaneers vs. Packers.

Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in the Week 3 loss to Minnesota and will miss at least three weeks. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start in his place, and the Dimers model projects him for just 188 passing yards, and it's safe to assume Tampa Bay won't want to put this game solely on a rookie's arm.

That puts the ball in Irving's hands. The Dimers model gives Irving a 64.1% chance to top 13.5 carries, which signals a big-volume day. His backfield mate Kenny Gainwell has averaged 2.1 yards per carry this season and projects for only 20 rushing yards.

Irving isn't projected to smash his rushing line of 55.5 with a projection of 59.3 rushing yards, but it puts him right in range of 60+, which comes at plus money, and the matchup gives him major upside.

Green Bay ranks 26th in rushing defense with 416 rushing yards allowed, and while Irving is not nearly the same level of player as Bijan Robinson, but Robinson just ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries against this defense while the Falcons racked up 242 rushing yards as a team.

Irving has been efficient, averaging 4.5 YPC this year, and his best game in Week 2 saw him tally 89 rushing yards behind a booming 38-yard run.

Kyren Williams (Rams)

Kyren Williams has the gap the model likes most out of any RB this week ahead of Rams vs. Eagles.

Sportsbooks have set his rushing line at 55.5, but the Dimers model projects him for 67.2 rushing yards and a 59.7% probability he clears his line.

Williams has gone over 85 rushing yards in back-to-back games on just 12 and 15 carries, including 88 yards on 15 carries in Week 3 against Denver, bringing his season YPC to 5.6.

Philadelphia ranks 23rd against the run and has allowed a 60+ yard lead rusher in every game this season (64, 63 and 84 yards).

The 60+ rung of the ladder comes in at plus-money and is backed by the Dimers projection outright. Williams hit that mark in 14 regular-season games last year and in 2 of 3 games this year.

The one miss was Week 1, a blowout that gave him his lowest volume of the season, not what we're projecting this week. Dimers' projections also put him at 85+ combined rushing and receiving yards, which makes the combined rush + rec yards market an alternative option.

The game script could help, too. Dimers gives the Rams a 63.4% chance to win, and we presently find no value on Blake Corum.

His 46 projected rushing yards would be his second-lowest total of the season, and he's coming off his lightest day yet with 6 carries for 15 yards.

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