NFL Week 5 betting recap: Where the Dimers model dominated and why it pays to follow

Week5 of NFL betting is in the books, which means it's time to take a look at where the Dimers model was most dialed in this weekend.

We cashed some more overdue touchdown targets, another pair of ladders and five straight weeks of positive spread picks.

If you were leaning on our NFL predictions from the Dimers model, you'd have caught several of these outcomes coming from a mile away, all sourced from our exclusive Dimers Pro insights.

He was due in a big, big way ✅ https://t.co/lmVeWhWhan

— Dimers (@dimerscom) October 11, 2026

Dimers Pro remains the top betting resource in your pocket this NFL season, and when paired with the Dimers App, you'll keep finding these kinds of edges week in and week out.

Let's see where the Dimers model was most dialed in from this weekend's slate.

Dimers' spreads turn in a fifth straight winning week

It wasn't the level of last week's 13-3 run, but a 9-6 run on the week turns in another profitable week tailing the Dimers spread picks.

If you've been tailing them all year, you're hitting at a 59.4% hit rate, good enough for weekly profit and likely a strong standing in a competitive pick 'ems league.

How do we determine our model's pick on the spread?

We check each NFL game prediction, and wherever our model favors a side above 50% against the spread, or finds value on a team at the closing number, that's our pick.

In games where the Dimers model predicted a 50/50 split, we check our predicted final score for the tiebreaker, as it will always land on one side of the spread.

Notable model picks that cashed this week included the Falcons, Rams and Panthers, all covering behind Dimers' numbers.

Touchdown props

While the Sunday Top 5 had its quietest outing yet with a 3-2 result, our edge props were dialed in.

Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marshawn Lloyd were among the players who appeared with an edge in our TD props, with JSN notably at plus money and over 55% to score, picking up his first-ever career TD vs. the 49ers.

Get an early look at those with an edge in Week 6 via our NFL Player Props.

Dimers' top call-outs

It's rarely a chalk week betting on the NFL, and Week 4 was no different, with these performances backing up the numbers we had on the board and covered as favorable betting angles via our best NFL bets and best NFL player props.

49ers cash upset of the week

The 49ers carried one of our highest edges among all best bets to cover as 3.5-point underdogs, but were also the only underdog that carried over a 40% win probability and a betting edge, successfully upsetting the Seattle Seahawks and planting a flag atop the division at 5-0.

In addition to the spread and Moneyline cashing, we also had an edge on the over that cleared by more than two full touchdowns for a perfect sweep of the game by the Dimers model.

TD droughts snapped by Jaylen Warren and Jameson Williams

For the second week in a row, we called out a trio of players who had yet to find the end zone this season, and where the data and matchup aligned for their best chance to score, and for the second week in a row, we cashed two of them.

This week's drought snappers, Steelers RB Jaylen Warren and Lions WR Jameson Williams, broke their cold streaks with not one, but TWO touchdowns each.

The pool of scoreless players gets smaller each week, but stay tuned for who lands on our radar in Week 6 using the Dimers NFL player projections.

Kyler Murray and Woody Marks cash their rushing ladders

Another spot where we've been hot lately is our ladder plays.

In back-to-back weeks, we picked two players to hit some plus-money lines in the running game and after Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving cashed last week, Vikings QB Kyler Murray and Texans RB Woody Marks followed suit.

Murray was projected for double his line, while all of our data pointed to a bigger workload for Marks, and he ended up with his highest volume of the year.

What the Dimers model said about these standout performances

Some of the biggest player and team performances of the week - here's what our model predicted around those outcomes and where you might have found an edge in our NFL player projections:

Puka Nacua sets career high with 17 catches

Rams WR Puka Nacua missed two games but looks like his old self, catching 17 of a whopping 24 targets from Matthew Stafford vs. the Bills on MNF.

Nacua was Dimer's top-projected WR in all of Week 5 at 99.4 receiving yards and 6.8 receptions, smashing both of his lines.

Jahmyr Gibbs posts 200 total yards and 2 TD

The Lions superstar RB continues to separate from the pack as the single-most productive player in the NFL, turning in 151 rushing yards, 56 receiving yards and his third multi-TD game of the year.

Here's where Gibbs ranked in our Week 5 projections:

Rushing yards: 94.4 (1st)

Receiving yards: 41.6 (1st among RB)

Anytime TD: 71.45 (1st)

2+ TD: 35.7% (1st)

Where we missed in Week 5

Our best overall edge of Rams -3 was sunk by a blocked kick in overtime, a tough break on what was shaping up to be the second 4th quarter Rams comeback in a row.

Another short week on our TD Round Robin, with a number of "touchdown vultures" this week, but as mentioned above, plenty of other TD targets showed up for us.

Not every prediction will be a winner, but if you trust the data long-term and rely on statistical decisions, you're more likely to find success over time.

Dimers' 2026-27 NFL betting resources for Week 6

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our top picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win the Super Bowl?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league