Stars vs. Capitals prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 3, 2026

The Washington Capitals are favored to beat the Dallas Stars at Capital One Arena on Tuesday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Stars vs. Capitals prediction gives Washington a 50.8% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value is on the over 5.5 goals.

Stars vs. Capitals key predictions

• Capitals win probability: 50.8%
• Stars win probability: 49.2%
• Capitals +1.5 puck line: 71.8% cover probability
• Over 5.5 goals: 54.4% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Stars vs. Capitals odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Stars moneyline: 50¢ (Novig)
• Capitals moneyline: 51¢ (Novig)
• Stars -1.5: +230 (DraftKings)
• Capitals +1.5: -285 (DraftKings)
• Over 5.5 goals: 55¢ (Novig)
• Under 5.5 goals: 46¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Stars vs. Capitals pick: Over 5.5 (55¢)

Our model makes the Capitals the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the over 5.5 total goals at 55¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the over an implied probability of 54.5%, while our model puts it at 54.4%.

Despite a -0.1% edge, it's still the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Stars vs. Capitals goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Jason Robertson of the Stars leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Tuesday's game at 36.7%, ahead of teammate Wyatt Johnston (34.9%). Washington's most likely goal-scorer, Alex Tuch, follows at 33.1%. Robertson also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 7.4%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Jason Robertson (Stars): 36.7%
2. Wyatt Johnston (Stars): 34.9%
3. Alex Tuch (Capitals): 33.1%
4. Mikko Rantanen (Stars): 28.3%
5. Tom Wilson (Capitals): 25.6%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Jason Robertson (Stars): 7.4%
2. Alex Tuch (Capitals): 7.1%
3. Wyatt Johnston (Stars): 6.7%
4. Mikko Rantanen (Stars): 5.3%
5. Tom Wilson (Capitals): 5.0%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Stars vs. Capitals prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Stars vs. Capitals predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Stars vs. Capitals game details

• Matchup: Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Capital One Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.