Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Alexander Bublik will take on Tommy Paul in the third round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Tommy Paul as the most likely winner in this Bublik vs. Paul prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Bublik vs. Paul prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Bublik-Paul men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Paul a 61% chance of defeating Bublik in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Paul has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bublik (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Tommy Paul -160, Alexander Bublik +140
• First Set: Bublik +120, Paul -152

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Bublik @ +140 via DraftKings
• First Set: Paul @ +100 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexander Bublik to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul is scheduled to begin on Friday at 12:10 PM ET.

• Who: Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:10 PM ET/9:10AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Tommy Paul, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat Alexander Bublik at the US Open 2026.

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