Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Ben Shelton and Denis Shapovalov are scheduled to meet in the third round of the US Open 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Ben Shelton as the most likely winner in this Shelton vs. Shapovalov prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Shelton vs. Shapovalov prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's Shelton-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Shelton a 78% chance of beating Shapovalov in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Shelton has a 73% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shelton (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov +300, Ben Shelton -375
• First Set: Shelton -227, Shapovalov +175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shelton @ -375 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shapovalov @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 39.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Ben Shelton and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to begin on Friday at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Ben Shelton, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.