Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Shelton-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Shelton a 79% chance of defeating Shapovalov in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Shelton has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shelton (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov +310, Ben Shelton -400
• First Set: Shelton -250, Shapovalov +200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shelton @ -400 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shapovalov @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 39.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Ben Shelton and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to commence on Friday at 8:10 PM ET.

• Who: Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Ben Shelton, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.