Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's Gauff-Rybakina women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Rybakina a 52% chance of defeating Gauff in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Rybakina has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Rybakina (+0.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Elena Rybakina -103, Coco Gauff -102
• First Set: Gauff +100, Rybakina -125

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Gauff @ -102 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rybakina @ -139 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Coco Gauff to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 8:10 PM ET.

• Who: Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina
• Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
• Approx. Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Elena Rybakina, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Coco Gauff at the US Open 2026.

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