Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Daniil Medvedev will take on Arthur Rinderknech in the third round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Daniil Medvedev as the most likely winner in this Medvedev vs. Rinderknech prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Medvedev vs. Rinderknech prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Medvedev-Rinderknech men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Medvedev a 76% chance of winning against Rinderknech in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Medvedev has a 70% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 38.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Arthur Rinderknech +250, Daniil Medvedev -303
• First Set: Medvedev -200, Rinderknech +162

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Medvedev @ -303 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rinderknech @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 38.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech is scheduled to commence on Friday at 12:10 PM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:10 PM ET/9:10AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Arthur Rinderknech at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.