Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno Busta prediction, odds, picks for Wimbledon 2026

Denis Shapovalov will take on Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round of Wimbledon Men's Singles 2026 on Monday.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Denis Shapovalov as the most likely winner of the Shapovalov vs. Carreno Busta match.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Shapovalov vs. Carreno Busta prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Shapovalov-Carreno Busta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Shapovalov a 72% chance of beating Carreno Busta at Wimbledon 2026.

Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno Busta odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Shapovalov	Carreno Busta
Moneyline	-250	+225
Game Spread	-4.5 (-122)	+4.5 (-110)
Total Games	o37.5 (-120)	u37.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Shapovalov vs. Carreno Busta picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Shapovalov	-250
First Set	Carreno Busta	-110

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Denis Shapovalov to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Shapovalov vs. Carreno Busta updates and essential details

The Wimbledon 2026 match between Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta is scheduled to start on Monday at 6:00 AM ET.

• Who: Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
• Date: Monday, June 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:00 AM ET/3:00AM PT
• Tournament: Wimbledon Men's Singles 2026
• Round: First round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Denis Shapovalov, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at Wimbledon 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.