Facundo Diaz Acosta vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili prediction, odds, picks for ATP Almaty Open 2026

Facundo Diaz Acosta will face Nikoloz Basilashvili in the round of 16 at the ATP Almaty event on Wednesday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Nikoloz Basilashvili as the most likely winner in this Diaz Acosta vs. Basilashvili prediction.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Diaz Acosta vs. Basilashvili prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Diaz Acosta-Basilashvili men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Basilashvili a 62% chance of defeating Diaz Acosta at the ATP Almaty Open tournament. Additionally, Basilashvili has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Diaz Acosta (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Nikoloz Basilashvili -227, Facundo Diaz Acosta +175
• First Set: Diaz Acosta +162, Basilashvili -200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Diaz Acosta @ +175 via DraftKings
• First Set: Basilashvili @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 23.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Almaty Open match between Facundo Diaz Acosta and Nikoloz Basilashvili is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 5:00 AM ET.

• Who: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili
• Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Nikoloz Basilashvili, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat Facundo Diaz Acosta at the ATP Almaty Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.