Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Tiafoe-Shelton men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Shelton a 73% chance of winning against Tiafoe in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Shelton has a 66% chance of winning the first set, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Ben Shelton -333, Frances Tiafoe +250
• First Set: Tiafoe +162, Shelton -200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Tiafoe @ +250 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shelton @ -200 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Frances Tiafoe to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton is scheduled to start on Friday at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Ben Shelton, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat Frances Tiafoe at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.