Hubert Hurkacz vs. Arthur Gea prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Hubert Hurkacz and Arthur Gea will lock horns in the round of 16 of the ATP China Open event on Friday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Hubert Hurkacz as the most likely winner in this Hurkacz vs. Gea prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Hurkacz vs. Gea prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Hurkacz-Gea men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Hurkacz a 60% chance of winning against Gea at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Hurkacz has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Hurkacz (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Arthur Gea +130, Hubert Hurkacz -148
• First Set: Hurkacz -139, Gea +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Hurkacz @ -148 via DraftKings
• First Set: Gea @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 24.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Hubert Hurkacz and Arthur Gea is scheduled to commence on Friday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Arthur Gea
• Date: Friday, October 2, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Hubert Hurkacz, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Arthur Gea at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.