Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Jessica Pegula will face Leylah Fernandez in the third round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Jessica Pegula as the most likely winner in this Pegula vs. Fernandez prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Pegula vs. Fernandez prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's Pegula-Fernandez women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Pegula an 82% chance of beating Fernandez in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Pegula has a 77% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Pegula (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 20.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Leylah Fernandez +490, Jessica Pegula -549
• First Set: Pegula -455, Fernandez +333

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Fernandez @ +490 via DraftKings
• First Set: Fernandez @ +100 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Leylah Fernandez to win.

Although Fernandez is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez is scheduled to begin on Friday at 11:30 AM ET.

• Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Jessica Pegula, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat Leylah Fernandez at the US Open 2026.

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