Maria Timofeeva vs. Elise Mertens prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Maria Timofeeva will take on Elise Mertens in the second round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Thursday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Elise Mertens as the most likely winner in this Timofeeva vs. Mertens prediction.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Timofeeva vs. Mertens prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Timofeeva-Mertens women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Mertens a 74% chance of winning against Timofeeva in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Mertens has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Mertens (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 20.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Elise Mertens -319, Maria Timofeeva +260
• First Set: Timofeeva +200, Mertens -250

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Timofeeva @ +260 via DraftKings
• First Set: Mertens @ -118 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Maria Timofeeva to win.

Although Timofeeva is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Maria Timofeeva and Elise Mertens is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Maria Timofeeva vs. Elise Mertens
• Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Second round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Elise Mertens, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Maria Timofeeva at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.