Naomi Osaka vs. Katerina Siniakova prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Naomi Osaka will face Katerina Siniakova in the second round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Thursday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Naomi Osaka as the most likely winner in this Osaka vs. Siniakova prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Osaka vs. Siniakova prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Osaka-Siniakova women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Osaka a 77% chance of winning against Siniakova in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Osaka has a 73% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Osaka (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Katerina Siniakova +333, Naomi Osaka -398
• First Set: Osaka -278, Siniakova +220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Siniakova @ +333 via DraftKings
• First Set: Siniakova @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Katerina Siniakova to win.

Although Siniakova is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Naomi Osaka and Katerina Siniakova is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 11:30 AM ET.

• Who: Naomi Osaka vs. Katerina Siniakova
• Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Second round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Naomi Osaka, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat Katerina Siniakova at the US Open 2026.

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